ENTSO-E provides system view on security of supply up to 2025
The 2015 edition of the Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast(SO&AF), released today, looks at how system adequacy -balance between supply and demand- is likely to evolve in Europe up to 2025. Foreseen by the 3rd Package, this long-term system adequacy assessment is one of the tools ENTSO-E provides to stakeholders and decision makers on which to base their investments and policy decisions.
The SO&AF 2015 takes into account most of the feedback received from stakeholders on previous editions. More focus is for instance given to cross-border flows and need for flexibility. Further improvements in probabilistic market-based system adequacy assessments will be implemented in the SO&AF 2016 report.
Regarding demand for electricity, the SO&AF 2015 foresees a 0.8% annual increase from 2016-2025 due electrification of heating and transport, and economic recovery. These results are based on the transmission system operators’ (TSO) highest forecast for electricity demand growth, relevant for risk assessments of generation adequacy.
New generation capacity to come from renewables
In terms of generation capacity, fossil fuel-based capacity decreases to lower values than in previous reports. Gas-fired power stations should replace coal power stations. Nuclear should be reduced by 12% between 2020 and 2025. New generation capacity will actually be provided by renewable energy sources (RES). Hydro power plants generation capacity is expected to remain stable until 2025. However, wind and solar are forecast to increase respectively by 80% and 60%.
By 2025, 22 countries are reported to have a RES capacity penetration level higher than 50% in their systems. In eight countries (DE, DK, GB, GR, IE, NI, NL and PT) demand could at times be totally covered by renewable generation.
Residual load and cross-border impacts to keep systems balanced
To analyse the operational risk to cover sudden changes due to inherent variability in the power system portfolio, several indicators have been defined and quantified using a one-hour resolution. Using data from the Pan-European Climate Database, residual load has been assessed. SO&AF 2015 also includes an enhanced regional assessment showing how electricity imports and exports can improve national system adequacy.
Quelle: www.entsoe.eu